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Researchers predict billions
in farm income losses
Barat Bisabri, right,
part-owner of Shiraz Ranch
near Newman, waits while
Javier Ybanez, left, douses
the depth of groundwater in
a Shiraz Ranch citrus
orchard on Oct. 31, 2008. A
new well is one measure
Bisabri is taking in
response to this year’s
severe federal water
cutbacks. He sought Ybanez’s
help last fall in hopes of
improving his luck before
drilling test holes.
Drought impacts
Lost revenue: $1.2 billion
to $1.6 billion
Lost income: $1.6 billion to
$2.2 billion
Lost jobs: 60,000 to 80,000
Study: Drought impact dire
Wes Sander
Capital Press
When Barat Bisabri received his notice
last fall from the Del Puerto Water
District that he would receive no more
than 10 percent - and possibly none - of
his water allocation, he decided to dig
a well.
He has since sunk three test holes and
plans to soon drill the well, expecting
a total cost near $100,000. In October,
as the skies began clouding and the
pressures mounting over the San Joaquin
Valley, Bisabri even tried the services
of a local water witch to divine
locations for test holes.
"A lot of us are going into territory
where we don't have much experience,"
Bisabri said of the current water
situation. "I don't know how much water
we're going to get out of the darned
thing, but I'm trying it."
Bisabri is managing partner in Shiraz
Ranch, growing 750 acres of almonds and
citrus in Stanislaus County. Beyond the
well, he plans to remove some almond
trees, leave some pomegranate trees
waterless, and forgo contracted labor
this year.
All of which makes him a case in point
for University of California-Davis
researchers who say revenue losses to
Central Valley farmers could total $1.6
billion this year because of water
shortages.
The report - "Economic Impacts of
Reduction in Delta Exports on Central
Valley Agriculture" - predicts losses of
$1.6 billion to $2.2 billion in direct
and indirect income loss from
scaled-back farming practices.
Between 60,000 and 80,000 workers could
lose their jobs, the study's three
authors say, accounting for 20 to 26
percent of jobs related directly and
indirectly to ag.
Bisabri said he's keeping his 10
full-time employees, but operations will
be downgraded. Pruning that would
normally take three weeks with help from
contract labor will take three months
this year, he said.
"What I am trying to do is show loyalty
to my workers," he said.
Conditions have improved somewhat since
the federal Bureau of Reclamation
announced in February that its 0 to 10
percent water delivery estimate would
remain unchanged for the year. Sierra
snowpacks are estimated at 80 percent of
average, with reservoirs at around 70
percent.
While the delivery outlook could still
improve, the state won't escape from the
current drought for a while yet, said
Amy Norris, a spokeswoman for the state
Department of Water Resources.
"We can't get out of this drought until
we're way above normal," Norris said.
And while conditions in 1977 were still
dryer, California is impacted now by
greater environmental restrictions and a
larger population. In addition, water
officials have learned the importance of
forward-thinking water management,
Norris said.
"We can't assume we're going to have wet
years coming," she said. "That was a
mistake of the past. We could be in
trouble again if we don't plan."
The Davis report's three authors point
out the possible mitigating effects of a
south-of-Delta water market. With
voluntary exchanges occurring regularly
among farmers, water could go first
where it's needed, significantly
reducing overall drought impacts, the
authors state.
A north-south market would be unlikely
given Delta pumping restrictions, but a
southern market could reduce the
fallowing of farmland and
survival-watering of orchards.
"We want to allow the individual
districts to get together and trade
amongst themselves," said Richard Howitt,
the study's lead author and chairman of
the Department of Agricultural and
Resources Economics at UC-Davis.
Thus the greatest challenge to sparking
such a market would involve
communication between water officials
and users, Howitt said.
"It depends on how people feel about
it," he said. "They need reassurance
that if they enter into these
agreements, they will not in any way,
shape or form lose their water rights."
In the end, a grower's gut feeling is a
big factor.
Bisabri works as a crop scientist in the
Bay Area. His experiment with a dowser
last fall didn't produce the best
results, he said.
Still, given the recommendations from
neighbors - and the desire to find an
advantage in tough circumstances - it
seemed worth the cost to try an unproven
tactic.
"If you look at the history of the
world, a lot of farmers are more
religious people," Bisabri said. "You
have to believe in something beyond your
power that can help you."
Staff writer Wes Sander is based in
Sacramento. E-mail: wsander@capitalpress.com.
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