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Economist looks at future of agriculture

New book predicts big changes; need for policy decisions

Cecilia Parsons
Capital Press

January 8, 2009

Agricultural economist Steven Blank takes a look at the future of the U.S. agriculture industry in his new book "The Economics of American Agriculture: Evolution and Global Development."

Blank predicts that the future will bring a much different role for the nation's agricultural sector and will require that the nation make extremely important policy decisions related to that change.

Blank is also the author of the 1998 book "The End of Agriculture in the American Portfolio," where he projected that rising costs and price competition from imported commodities would eventually force U.S. firms to abandon production agriculture and move their investments into industries with higher returns.

Blank's current book looks at financial management, risk analysis, futures and options markets, and management.

He uses portfolio theory - the concept of how rational investors will diversify their investments to maximize the value of their holdings - to analyze both macro- and microeconomic data. That analysis reveals trends in agriculture, and explains why those trends reflect market evolution and global economic development.

Blank is from the University of California-Davis.

He earned his doctorate in agricultural economics at the University of Hawaii. He is past-president of the Western Agricultural Economics Association and received that association's highest honor, the Distinguished Scholar Award, in 2007.
 

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