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Water outlook gets 'C-plus'
March 19, 2009
Washington's snowpack is below average so far, and stream flows will be "moderately below" average this summer as a result, the Natural Resource Conservation Service's March outlook report states. Stream flow forecasts range from 60 percent of average for the Okanogan area in the north to 98 percent of average on the Green River on the west side of the state for spring and summer runoff. The Tolt River basin is the only one in Washington with snowpack totals significantly above normal, at 125 percent. The Conconully Lake area, near Okanogan, reported the lowest snowpack conditions, at 41 percent. Conservation service public affairs officer Ron Nichols said the winter has been so erratic, Washington's average numbers statewide have been shrinking. "This last month, going into the April 1 numbers, is really going to determine whether we have a winning hand or a losing hand in terms of water," he said. Nichols said current snowpack conditions rate about a "C-plus," but demands for water have been increasing over time. "We get a little nervous when those (snowpack) numbers start trending down," he said. "You never know what the final hand is going to be." Colville, Wash.-based district conservationist Dave Kreft said lower numbers, like those in the Okanogan and Chelan areas at 60 to 70 percent of average, are hard to compensate for. Kreft advised people who are heavily dependent on small streams for water to keep an eye out. "It may not be as close to average as we like," he said, "If we get good spring rains, a slow meltoff, we might be OK." The service uses sampling tubes to take a core sample of snow, which is weighed and converted to inches of water. About 70 percent to 80 percent of the late summer stream flow depends upon how much snow water is in the mountains at springtime, Kreft said. The service gets the information from 68 automated snow data collection sites, 96 active snow courses and aerial markers, roughly 35 snow surveyors, 10 partners or volunteers collecting close to 80 percent of the manual data and 800 SNOTEL sites in 11 western states and Alaska. The National Water and Climate Center in Portland uses the information to predict stream flow, runoff and the ability for water reservoirs to fill. Kreft said the water content of the winter snowpack helps provide information for people dependent upon water, including those using irrigation water and working in hydroelectric generation or barge transportation. Decision-makers in such fields use the March report information to make adjustments early, rather than make harsh cuts mid-season, Kreft said. Other agencies use the information for flood forecasting. Reservoir operators, hydroelectric operators and managers use the outlook report to determine how much water to hold or release, while biologists can determine what kind of water needs are necessary for fish, Nichols said. The numbers are also critical for the agricultural sector, Nichols said. "(Producers) can determine whether or not to plant a particular crop, to plan on more than one crop," he said. "Managers and others rely upon the snow measurements and accurate stream flow forecasting." The service's April 1 outlook report is the most accurate predictor of late-season stream flows. "This March report gives us a good idea of how close are we to average," Kreft said. "Come April 1, we'll have a really good idea of what's going to be coming out of the streams." Matthew Weaver is based in Spokane, Wash. E-mail: mweaver@capitalpress.com. |
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