Farmers’ revenue might be comparable to last year’s 

By SARA HOTTMAN

H&N Staff Reporter

October 21, 2010

     As farmers in the Klamath Basin wrap their harvests this month, they’re discovering that the unseasonably cool, wet weather that delayed planting and drought conditions that impeded irrigating caused lower yields.

   But rough growing conditions were widespread in the global agricultural market this year, making lower-than-average yields the norm.

   “I haven’t talked to one person in my peer group that has (harvested) their historic average yield,” said Greg Carleton, part-owner of Carleton Farms in Merrill. “We’re all well below.”

   Overall depressed supply, coupled with steady demand, means basic economic principles favor farmers: Prices are higher because yields are lower, so despite fewer centum weights, tons or bushels to sell, farmers’ revenue could be comparable to last year’s.  

   Breaking even isn’t profit, so budgets will probably still be tighter next year, Carleton said. Local growers are hoping the water issues that compounded weather issues this year won’t be a problem next growing season.

   “We’re hoping and praying like everybody else that we have a good, wet winter,” Carleton said.  

   Alfalfa

   Carleton’s alfalfa crop yielded about 25 percent lower than last year, but the quality was some of his best.

   “There’s going to be a shortage of alfalfa, so demand is good,” Carleton said. “Prices are better than they were last year. Yields were significantly down, but better quality demands better prices.”

   The operation expects to garner between $140 and $150 per ton “for the same kind of hay that would have brought $120 last year,” Carleton said. Despite   lower yields — less product to sell — their earnings will be “very comparable.”

   Potatoes

   Carleton Farms’ potatoes are sold through contracts, so market prices won’t make up for their significantly lower production — down about 25 percent from last year, Carleton said.

   “The projection is that this year’s fall crop will be about 10 percent less than last year,” said Brian Charlton, cropping system specialist at the OSU Klamath Basin Extension office. “If that holds true, that’ll be one of the smallest fall crops in 20 years.”

   About 55 percent of the Basin grows Russet potatoes, which are down between 50 and 70 hundredweight from normal, Charlton said. Chip potatoes, about 35 percent of potato crops in the Basin,   are around 50 hundredweight low.

   With the smaller yields, farmers selling potatoes on the open market have seen a $10 price increase since last year. A hundredweight of potatoes in Oregon is currently worth $16.60.     

   Nationwide, acres of potatoes planted were down 4 percent from last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in late August. Officials expect harvested area to be 3 percent lower than last year.  

   Wheat

   Carleton’s spring and winter wheat yields were about average. Many growers in the Basin have said wet, cool weather and two frosts in August and September damaged crops, lowering yields.

   Winter wheat is about on track for production, Charlton said, but spring wheat growers who had full irrigation are at about 80 percent of their usual yields. Farmers who didn’t get water are harvesting one third of what they normally would.  

   However, weather and catastrophe in the worldwide wheat markets caused prices in America to suddenly skyrocket, which may compensate for growers’ lost bushels.

   The price for soft white wheat in Oregon is currently $6.10, up from $4.55 in June.

   The worldwide wheat supply is depressed about 1.6 percent this year, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, because a quarter of Russia’s wheat crops were killed by drought and wildfire.

   Russia is one of the top wheat exporters in the world, along with China, India and the United States. The USDA projects its growers will produce 2.3 billion bushels of wheat this year.

   In August, the Russian government implemented a grain export ban in an effort to stabilize its domestic market. The ban will remain into next year, and possibly into the next planting season.