But there could be a twist. To arrive at his forecasts, Taylor takes
climate data for the current year and compares it with past years, looking
for one when conditions were most similar to what they are now.
For this forecast, Taylor focused on the similarities between now and
1951. Among the weather events of that year: a Dec. 6 tornado that struck
near the Eugene airport. Oregon doesn’t get many tornadoes, but Taylor
wouldn’t rule it out.
‘‘There could be a tornado any year, because an extreme weather event
is par for the course here in the winter,’’ Taylor said.
Taylor predicts a weak El Nino. That in turn will mean a flow of warm air
coming to Oregon from the southwest instead of arctic blasts from the
north. The jet stream is likely
to sit just north of Oregon and it forms the boundary between warm and
cold air, Taylor said.
‘‘Washington and British Columbia will be where the action is,’’
he said.
Decent skiing in S. Oregon
In similar years, Southern Oregon saw deeper than average mountain snows,
so Taylor expects decent ski conditions there.
Taylor offers the predictions because farmers like having a general idea
about coming trends. The Old Farmer’s Almanac also offers its own
guesses. This year, the almanac agrees with Taylor about precipitation,
but predicts colder weather.
Taylor has had mixed results in recent years. He accurately predicted last
winter’s stormy weather, but failed to foresee the dry winter of 2004-05.
