Wetter winter forecast

November 7, 2005

    PORTLAND (AP) — Forget about last year’s dry, warm winter — forecasters say this year, things look to be different.
    At the recent annual gathering of forecasters at OMSI, the 13th year the event was held, about 100 people showed up to hear the prognostication for this winter, weather professionals and laymen alike.
    ‘‘This just started as a fun little thing we did,’’ said Kyle Dittmer, meteorologist for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission and president of the Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society. ‘‘But every year we get more people, including the utility companies, ski resorts and people generally interested in the weather.’’
    Dittmer called for nearnormal conditions for the Portland area throughout the winter, which means mild temperatures and about 20 inches of rain scattered from December through February.
    Steve Todd, National Weather Service meteorologist in Portland, said his office projects the winter to be pretty close to normal, but that there was a chance for it to be wetter than usual.
    And meteorologist Pete Parsons of Redmond said the winter should be slightly colder and wetter than average. The Willamette Valley could see at least one significant snow storm, he said.
    Meteorologists use a variety of data, including historical records, trends and surface temperature readings in the Pacific Ocean to come up with the long-range forecast. But trying to predict the weather months in advance is still an inexact science.
    Still, that didn’t seem to bother Jim and Garlin Jones, a retired couple from Lake Oswego, who came to listen in on the forecasts.
    ‘‘I think most of this is kind of tongue-in-cheek,’’ Jim Jones said. ‘‘They are going to be wrong, but they know they’re going to be wrong.’’
    State climatologist George Taylor called for a winter wetter than average before the first of the year and much wetter than average after January.
    A ‘‘La Niña’’ effect could put a ridge of pressure off the Pacific Coast, which in turn would allow cold air down from the Arctic while providing an opening for sub-tropic systems, which carry more water than Alaskan storms, to reach Oregon, Taylor said.
    That’s what led to one of the worst floods to hit the Willamette Valley, in February 1996.