As winter officially approaches, the water outlook for Oregon agriculture is off to a good start with recent heavy snowfall in the higher elevations. But weather forecasters and others will tell you it is way too early to predict how much water will be available for farmers and ranchers come next summer.

 

"The water year is like a nine-inning baseball game and we are only in the top of the second inning," says Jim Little, meteorologist with the Oregon Department of Agriculture. "We got a boost this past week when heavy precipitation in the form of snow blanketed the Cascades and other high elevations. That's a nice start, but we are going to need more in the months to come."

 

Oregon does not receive the summer rainfall that helps agriculture in the Midwest and other parts of the country. Instead, Oregon farmers and ranchers rely on irrigation which, in turn, feeds off streams and reservoirs. A strong buildup of snow in the mountains would be a welcome sight to anyone who will need water in the summer of 2006.

 

"Yahoo," says ODA's Jim Johnson in response to the good start for the water season. "I'm hoping this will mean few, if any, drought declarations for the state next year."

 

Johnson helps to coordinate weather related disaster declarations for the governor each year. Before a late spring rush of rain earlier this year, a majority of Oregon counties contemplated making a request for drought declarations.

 

Snow will normally start to fall in the higher elevations by mid-November. A week ago, the statewide snowpack was a healthy 108 percent of average for this time of the year. Then came last week's heavy snowfall in much of the state. That pushed the state's snowpack to 139 percent of average– the best statewide average of all western states.

 

"We are off to a great start," says Jon Lea, hydrologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) in Portland. "A year ago, we had a snowpack that was only 26 percent of average. There is almost five times more snow on the ground statewide than we had last year at this time."

 

Looking at individual basins, the snowpack figures are impressive. The Klamath Basin– always a concern for both agriculture and fish– stands at 184 percent of average compared to only 20 percent at this time last year. Malheur reports 156 percent of average with the Deschutes, John Day, and Harney at 147, 145, and 141 percent of average respectively. West of the Cascades, the Rogue/Umpqua and Coast Range both report a snowpack 144 percent of average while the Willamette Basin sits at 132 percent.

 

In fact the only basin below average at this time is Owyhee in the extreme southeast corner of the state at 82 percent of average. Even that is an improvement over last year's 65 percent of average at this time.

 

Lea is still using extreme caution before he gets too excited.

 

"It's still very early in the season," says Lea. "You don't start counting your snowpacks before they melt. We've had some very good starts the last couple of years and then the snow just stops. We've also had slow starts followed by heavy snow later in the winter. You just never know."

 

Traditionally, the big snow events come in December and January. If the big winter storms hit over the next two to three months, Oregon could end up with a good supply of water in 2006.

 

"Typically by the first of January, we have about 60 percent of our maximum snowpack on the ground," says Lea. "Then by the middle of April, the snowpack usually begins to melt."

 

Early fall rain this year has helped set the stage for a fairly good water outlook for 2006. That rain soaked the ground to the point that any melting snow next spring will hopefully go directly into streams and rivers. From there, the water can end up in one of Oregon's irrigation reservoirs so critical to agriculture.

 

"Reservoir storage looked bad last spring coming out of our low winter snowpack, but the late spring rains replenished many of those reservoirs," says Lea. "Right now, reservoir levels are about where they should be for a decent carryover heading into next summer. It would be nice to maintain the snowpack and even build on it so that we don't need to rely on spring rains for those reservoirs."

 

At this point, every inch of snow in the higher elevations will mean something positive for agriculture. It won't be until April before officials can truly determine how the rest of the year will shape up.

 

"I would like to see a good strong snowpack built up in the mountains in the next three or four months," says Lea. "Then I hope we don't have too warm of an early spring because we don't want that snowpack to melt too rapidly or too early. In many areas of eastern Oregon, up to three quarters of our water supply is derived from mountain snow melting in a timely fashion and filling the reservoirs so that irrigation districts can portion out the water in appropriate fashion."

 

Overall, the water situation for Oregon is looking up for agriculture. But don't bet the farm just yet on how things will end up next summer when that water is needed.

 

"Right now, we're in good shape for this time of year," says ODA's Little. "But if we don't get a lot of precipitation the rest of the winter– especially snow in the mountains– we could still end up with a challenging summer in 2006."

 

Updated information on Oregon's snowpack conditions and water supply forecasts are available online. 

 

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